Region-based cascading impact analysis in critical infrastructure systems

Abstract

Critical Infrastructure System (CIS) disruption cascades into all the dependent CISs, even the regions, over the internal system where the disruption occurs. This study develops a cascading impact analysis with a region-based path-flow estimation approach based on a complex network and provides a local-scale demonstration of the interdependent electric power-water supply system in Incheon, South Korea. The analytical framework facilitates the modeling of CISs considering three major structural relationships–CIS, CIS-CIS, and CIS-Region- with functional interdependency and quantifying cascading impacts on regions via a continuous service flow. The results demonstrate more practical cascading ranges and levels caused by each CIS disruption, highlighting that the potential impacts increase in an integrated network, which a single CIS network cannot capture. It emphasizes the need to consider functional interdependent CIS structures and estimate cascading impacts from a regional perspective. This study provides multiangle insights into how regions enhance resilience through infrastructure disaster management.